What Interest Rates Did to Florida Apartment Prices, 1995 to 2026
When the 30-year mortgage rate went from under 3% to almost 7%, Florida apartment prices did not fall. They stopped rising. The median price per unit jumped 57% from 2019 to 2022 while rates sat near record lows, then rose just 10% from 2022 to 2025 with rates at 6.6% to 6.8%. Rents, up about 49% since 2019, held prices up. Sales volume took the hit instead.
Every owner I talk to this year asks some version of "rates are high, should I wait?" It is the right question, and Florida has 30 years of answers. I lined up every recorded sale of a Florida apartment building with five or more units since 1995 against the Federal Reserve's own rate data: the 30-year mortgage average (Freddie Mac's survey, published on FRED) and the 10-year Treasury yield, which is what commercial lenders actually price apartment loans from.
Rates and prices, year by year
| Year | 30-yr mortgage | 10-yr Treasury | Median per unit | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 7.96% | 6.58% | $38,904 | 172 |
| 2000 | 8.06% | 6.03% | $43,204 | 488 |
| 2003 | 5.82% | 4.01% | $51,810 | 1,080 |
| 2005 | 5.87% | 4.29% | $65,000 | 1,780 |
| 2009 | 5.04% | 3.26% | $59,900 | 222 |
| 2012 | 3.66% | 1.80% | $60,634 | 594 |
| 2016 | 3.65% | 1.84% | $73,684 | 1,087 |
| 2019 | 3.94% | 2.14% | $90,909 | 1,225 |
| 2020 | 3.11% | 0.89% | $96,264 | 1,056 |
| 2021 | 2.96% | 1.44% | $113,100 | 2,035 |
| 2022 | 5.33% | 2.95% | $142,857 | 1,539 |
| 2023 | 6.80% | 3.96% | $145,500 | 933 |
| 2024 | 6.73% | 4.21% | $146,875 | 965 |
| 2025 | 6.60% | 4.29% | $157,143 | 945 |
The 30-year rate bottomed at 2.68% in December 2020 and peaked at 7.62% in October 2023. As of September 2026 it averaged 6.86%, and the 10-year Treasury was at 5.22% on October 8, 2026, up from about 4.1% in January. On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4%, its first increase since 2023, so the direction right now is up, not down. For perspective, the record was 18.45% in October 1981, and apartment buildings still sold then, mostly with seller financing.
Why prices did not crash when rates doubled
1. Rents rose about as fast as prices. Across the 35 Florida counties Zillow has tracked since 2015, the average rent went from $1,324 a month in 2019 to $1,971 in 2025, up 49%. Buyers pay for income. When income rises half again, a higher rate eats the extra rather than the base.
Here is the median price per unit divided by a year of average county rent. It is a rough gross multiple (Zillow's index covers houses as well as apartments), but the trend is what matters:
| Year | Median per unit | Avg county rent / month | Price รท annual rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $75,417 | $1,088 | 5.78x |
| 2019 | $90,909 | $1,324 | 5.72x |
| 2021 | $113,100 | $1,598 | 5.90x |
| 2022 | $142,857 | $1,871 | 6.36x |
| 2025 | $157,143 | $1,971 | 6.64x |
The multiple has stayed between about 5.4 and 6.6 times annual rent for a decade. Higher rates did not push it down. If anything, buyers paid a little more per dollar of rent in 2025 than in 2019.
2. Volume fell instead of price. Sales went from 2,035 in 2021 to 933 in 2023, down 54%. Owners who did not need to sell at a lower number did not. It is the same pattern as 2008, when sale counts fell 83% but the median fell only 15%. In apartments, the market adjusts in volume first.
3. Small buildings are not financed like big ones. A 200-unit complex is bought with agency debt priced off the Treasury, so every quarter point shows up in the price. An 8-unit is often bought with local bank debt, 1031 money, cash, or seller financing, which cushions it from the national rate.
Where rates do bite: the debt payment
Rates do not set your price directly, but they set what a buyer can afford to pay out of your income. On a $1 million loan with a 30-year amortization, the annual payment is about $50,592 at 3% and about $78,711 at 6.86%. That is 56% more debt service on the same building. A lender requires the income to cover that payment by 1.20 to 1.25 times, so higher rates mean smaller loans, bigger down payments and fewer buyers who qualify.
The cleaner way to see it is the spread. Commercial lenders and buyers compare your cap rate to the 10-year Treasury. In 2020, the 10-year averaged 0.89%, so a 7% cap rate building paid about six points over a Treasury bond. In October 2026, with the 10-year at 5.22%, that same 7% building pays under two points over it. That thin spread is why buyers push for higher cap rates, and it is why cap rate and cash-on-cash return have split apart for anyone using debt.
What this means for you
If you have owned since before 2010, rates matter less to you than to your buyer. Your equity is large and your basis is low. The rate sets how many buyers can reach your price, so the job is pricing the building to survive a buyer's lender, which is how I price every listing. Read should I sell my apartment building next.
If you bought in 2021 or 2022 with a short-term loan, the refinance is the real problem. A loan written at 3.5% that resets near 7% can turn a building cash-negative even when rents are up. You have three options: refinance and feed it, sell, or offer seller financing to the next buyer. See refinancing a Florida apartment building.
If you are waiting for rates to drop, look at the chart again. From 2012 to 2016, rates sat near 3.7% and prices rose 21%. From 2022 to 2025, rates sat near 6.7% and prices still rose 10%. Rents and insurance moved Florida apartment values more than rates did. A field note: in 2013, insurance on the buildings I sold ran about $400 a door. Today it is $950 to $1,500. That change, not the rate, is the line I see sink more deals. More in what Florida apartment insurance costs now.
How I built these numbers
Prices are the median recorded sale price per unit for arm's-length sales of Florida parcels classified as multifamily with five or more units, from Florida Department of Revenue sale records and county files. Rates are yearly averages of FRED series MORTGAGE30US and DGS10. Rents are yearly averages of the Zillow Observed Rent Index across the 35 Florida counties Zillow has tracked since January 2015. The full year-by-year table is in 30 years of Florida apartment prices.
Questions owners ask
Do higher interest rates lower apartment building prices?
Not as much as people expect. When the 30-year mortgage rate went from about 3% in 2021 to 6.6% to 6.8% in 2023 to 2025, the Florida median price per unit kept rising, though only about 10% in three years. Rents rose about 49% from 2019 to 2025, which offset the higher debt cost. Sales volume fell instead, down 54% from 2021 to 2023.
What is the mortgage rate in Florida right now?
The national 30-year fixed mortgage average was 6.86% in September 2026, per Freddie Mac data on FRED. Commercial apartment loans are priced differently, usually as a spread over the 10-year Treasury, which was 5.22% on October 8, 2026.
Should I wait for rates to drop before selling my apartment building?
Rates are only one input. Over the last decade, Florida rents and insurance costs moved apartment values more than rates did. If your building's income is strong now and your insurance is in hand, waiting for a rate cut means betting that rents keep rising and expenses do not. Price it to survive a buyer's lender today and compare.
How do interest rates affect cap rates?
Buyers compare a building's cap rate to the 10-year Treasury. When the Treasury averaged 0.89% in 2020, a 7% cap rate paid about six points over it. At 5.22% in October 2026, the same building pays under two points over it, so buyers push for higher cap rates, which means lower prices for the same income.
I price every building to survive a buyer's lender at today's rates. That is the job of a Florida multifamily broker. Call me and I will run your income at today's debt terms.
